Monday, December 06, 2004

Slow News Day

I'm going to stay clear of the steriods stories and try to focus exclusively on the Nationals. I've also tried to focus on the team and am ignoring most of the stories about the stadium and owner's votes. However, that hasn't left too much in the way of news. I've seen a couple rumors that Bowden has $6 million a year offers to Wright and Perez. I don't know how reliable those reports are.

The Nats blog has an interesting breakdown of the free agent pitchers with ERA+ and BABIP stats for all of them. I think he overstates DIPS in regards to pitchers like Lowe (since extreme groundball pitchers are more reliant on defense and often have a higher BABIP than extreme flyball pitchers), but the data is nicely laid out and serves as an ominous guide for the team that signs Pavano. I think people have overstated that he has had only "one good season" - I think his last two seasons have been pretty good. However, his declining K rate is a big warning sign and I think he is unlikely to be a consistently good or great pitcher.

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